What the Spring Forecast could mean for UK SMEs in 2026

While widely described as a ‘non-event’ following Labour’s promise to stick with just ‘one fiscal event a year’ (being the autumn budget), tomorrow’s Spring Forecast will still see the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) provide an updated economic outlook. It is seen as a fiscal ‘health check’ for the UK, laying bare the current relationship between economic performance and public finances. It will likely inform Government decisions ahead of the in-depth autumn budget later in the year, acting as a yardstick for future spending and the landscape around taxation.  

Economic forecasts from the OBR will be published in full after Chancellor Rachel Reeves has delivered her speech in the Commons – estimated to take place sometime after midday. The OBR is the independent body that monitors the government’s spending plans and performance, and its biannual forecasts give an indication of how the economy is expected to perform and whether the government is likely to meet the tax and spending rules it has set.

The two main rules are:

• Not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this parliament
• To get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament

At the time of November’s Budget, the OBR said Reeves would meet the first measure with £21.7bn in reserve – an amount often referred to as “headroom”. The OBR forecasts matter because the government may cut spending or raise taxes if it is at risk of not meeting its rules.

For the first time in its 16-year history, the OBR will not publish an assessment of how the government is progressing in meeting its own fiscal rules. As of last year’s autumn budget, the government said this assessment by the OBR would now be made only once a year at the autumn Budget, which makes for uncertainty around what is to be expected tomorrow. 

Unlike the lateness of last year’s Autumn Budget, this is the earliest Spring Forecast on record. This makes it easier for businesses and accountants to plan before the new tax year.

The government reported its greatest ever surplus in January. The public sector recorded a £30.4 billion surplus, according to ONS figures, which is double the surplus and £6.3 billion higher than the OBR’s November forecast. Although the surplus tends to be higher at this time of year because of an increase in tax receipts.

Will the Spring Forecast mean more support for SMEs?

There have been several pre-forecast announcements in 2026 so far that suggest heightened efforts for supporting SMEs. One example is that five major banks agreed on an £11 billion lending package aimed at SMEs to support small business growth. The government suggested this represents an ‘historic show of confidence in the UK economy’ which will help boost investment. In addition, pubs and music venues in England were given a 15% discount on their business rates bills from April 2026 and will not see increases for two years. The move came in response to backlash against the 2025 Autumn Budget, which levied increases across the industry despite it being one of the worst-suffering sectors. While this was not initially rolled out for Wales, it has since been announced that hospitality businesses throughout Wales would also receive the same discount. 

What are the priorities for SMEs? 

Rising labour costs, business rates and NICs have made for challenging times across all business sectors. For a better and brighter 2026 and 2027, businesses want to see efforts being made to: 

• Reduce costs
• Boost exports
• Encourage investments 
• Support smaller firms 
• Cap energy bills 
• Abandon plans for a so-called ‘holiday tax’ 

Get faster access to business finance with White Oak UK 

Don’t wait for the ‘what ifs’ posed by the budget – in any economy, the experts at White Oak UK are here to help. Whether you have dreams of scaling your success story or branching out into an entirely new area, our range of business finance products can help make it all a reality. Explore our previous customer case studies for an insight into how we do what we do, or check your eligibility for a business loan online within minutes – without affecting your credit score. 

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